Minha Casa Minha Vida Four Years On

The Minha Casa Minha Vida programme has been an immense success since it was first launched by the previous Brazilian government back in 2009, but is the programme doing what it was designed to do and reduce the country's massive housing deficit.

 

Although expert analysis does vary, it is generally estimated that Brazil still needs another 6 - 10million homes to provide adequate housing for the ever increasing population. In 2005, the Brazilian housing shortage stood at a massive 7.8 million homes, which is equivalent to 14.7% of demand, according to the Sustainable Brazil Housing Market Potential report, drawn up by professional services specialists, Ernst and Young Terco. The 2010 Census broadly agreed with these figures. It stated that Brazil had a housing deficit of about 5.8 million homes. Looking much further ahead, the Brazilian government estimates that to meet current and future demand the country will need another around 24 million homes constructed by the year 2023.

Another factor that will generate more pressure on the country’s need to add millions of homes is the relatively young population. "While deemed very successful, the programme is making limited impact on the country’s housing deficit, estimated at between 6-8 million homes. Given Brazil’s young population and high rate of household formation, this deficit is growing rapidly," Savills’ Spotlight on Brazil explains. In 2013, the median age in Brazil is 30.3 years, which puts it around 100th out of 250 countries, according to the CIA World Factbook.

The need is great, as Ruban Selvanayagam, partner-director at the Fez Tá Pronto Construction System and a commentator on the affordable homes sector in Brazil points out. "Looking at Brazil as a whole, there is a need to build 4,932 new low-income housing units every day until 2022 - the bicentenary of Brazil’s independence - based on an aggregated existing deficit level of 6.7 million homes. However, the situation is evidentially much worse than is often reported when considering the highly inefficient data collection methodologies which invariably include homes with abysmally degraded living conditions as part of the national stock count."

In summary, the Minha Casa Minha Vida programme it working, but the initial housing deficit was so great that it is going to be a number of years before we see any noticeable reductions in the housing deficit.