The Minha Casa Minha Vida programme has been an immense
success since it was first launched by the previous Brazilian government back
in 2009, but is the programme doing what it was designed to do and reduce the
country's massive housing deficit.
Although expert analysis does vary, it is generally
estimated that Brazil still needs another 6 - 10million homes to provide
adequate housing for the ever increasing population. In 2005, the Brazilian
housing shortage stood at a massive 7.8 million homes, which is equivalent to
14.7% of demand, according to the Sustainable Brazil Housing Market Potential
report, drawn up by professional services specialists, Ernst and Young Terco.
The 2010 Census broadly agreed with these figures. It stated that Brazil had a
housing deficit of about 5.8 million homes. Looking much further ahead, the
Brazilian government estimates that to meet current and future demand the
country will need another around 24 million homes constructed by the year 2023.
Another factor that will generate more pressure on the
country’s need to add millions of homes is the relatively young population. "While
deemed very successful, the programme is making limited impact on the country’s
housing deficit, estimated at between 6-8 million homes. Given Brazil’s young
population and high rate of household formation, this deficit is growing
rapidly," Savills’ Spotlight on Brazil explains. In 2013, the median age
in Brazil is 30.3 years, which puts it around 100th out of 250 countries,
according to the CIA World Factbook.
The need is great, as Ruban Selvanayagam, partner-director
at the Fez Tá Pronto Construction System and a commentator on the affordable
homes sector in Brazil points out. "Looking at Brazil as a whole, there is
a need to build 4,932 new low-income housing units every day until 2022 - the
bicentenary of Brazil’s independence - based on an aggregated existing deficit
level of 6.7 million homes. However, the situation is evidentially much worse
than is often reported when considering the highly inefficient data collection methodologies
which invariably include homes with abysmally degraded living conditions as
part of the national stock count."
In summary, the Minha Casa Minha Vida programme it working,
but the initial housing deficit was so great that it is going to be a number of
years before we see any noticeable reductions in the housing deficit.